important announcement about decorative rooster

decorative rooster

[from my dad]

An important announcement!!!

We have a new addition to our house.
It is Dionigio (Di-on-ig-io).

Dionigio is a large metal rooster that Doug bought for Mom while they were in Connecticut. Our new Dionigio is in honor of my grandfather Dionigio (on my mother’s side).

Grandfather Dionigio was an intelligent, hard working, self-made, successful person. He came to the US from Trentino-Alto Adige (North east Italy) when my mother was three years old. A coal company paid their fare which he worked off by working in the mines.

They saved money and bought a piece of woodland in Vineland. They cleared the land by hand and used the wood to build a house.

He and other farmers build, by themselves, the church that I attended when I lived in Vineland. A story I remember hearing is that one day there was a dispute about the direction of some wood boards over the alter. Dionigio wanted them at an angle and the other farmers wanted them square. Dionigio had an artistic flair. Since the farmers could not resolve the dispute, they decided to break and go home for lunch. Dionigio returned after the others left and put up the boards at an angle. I remember looking at those boards when in that church and thinking about Dionigio.

When my mother and father married, Dionigio lent them the money to buy the farm on Italia Avenue, where I spend my childhood. The money was repaid without one missed payment. I was told that there was a big party, the day the mortgage was finally paid off.

I can tell more stories about Grandfather Dionigio. Maybe you will ask when you see our new Dionigio in our kitchen.

accounting for advertising expenditure

Advertisers understand that brand impressions influence online actions.  Having previously seen good advertising for a brand helps to induce a user to click on an ad for that brand.  Microsoft, which is far behind Google in search advertising, is vigorously embracing and extending digital advertising to emphasize display advertising.[1] Google’s acquisition of DoubleClick indicates that Google also recognizes the importance of serving and reporting impressions of display ads that users do not click.

The effects of competition across display advertising and pay-per-click advertising depends significantly on forces for accountability in advertising expenditure.  Microsoft’s Atlas Institute is vigorously advocating a re-allocation of “credit” for clicks on ads:

The current “last ad” model attributes 100% of the credit for a conversion to the last ad seen or clicked.  This is the current standard the industry has relied on to justify their digital media spend.  The problem with this approach is that it ignores the contributions of any previous ads that led the customer down the road to the conversion.[2]

The Atlas Institute proposes a “new measurement standard” that it calls “Engagement Mapping”:

Engagement Mapping counts every customer touch point (not just the last) and enables advertisers to be more effective, more creative, and more relevant with their digital marketing [expenditure] … Flexibility in the way you measure each factor lies at the heart of the new model. … The new model gives advertisers the ability to make specific adjustments and set the dials to reflect the impact of the factors they believe have the greatest impact on their Engagement ROI.[3]

Technical tools that allow persons to adjust their view of reality to reflect their particular beliefs have deep, well-established demand. Such tools are particularly valuable for large advertisers that are institutionally and personally invested in long-established advertising programs and patterns.  Flexibility in accounting for advertising effects is also important for managers seeking to use corporate barter to obscure losses on less flexibly valued assets.

Considering other factors relevant to user response highlights the meaninglessness of managerial allocation of credit for ad clicks.  An attractive, well designed product helps to induce users to click on ads.  Should the contribution of product design be ignored in allocating credit for last-ad clicks?  Should the contribution of product reliability be ignored in allocating credit for last-ad clicks? What about product feature set?  Why should Engagement Mapping just allocate credit to advertising expenditure?  In practice, allocating credit is mainly valuable as a tool for personal and bureaucratic justification.

Economically sensible, quantitative analysis of ad conversions should associate marginal changes in different types of advertising with 100% of the change in ad conversions.  That means estimating partial derivatives of conversions as a function of variables in the conversion funnel — ad impression order, ad frequency, ad size, ad media type, etc.  Optimization requires equal conversion effects across equal dollar-measured marginal changes in different advertising variables.

Google and Microsoft might compete to provide tools for managerially allocating credit for advertising expenditure.  Alternatively, they might compete to provide tools for (locally) optimizing advertising expenditure. Neither type of tool can substitute for a good product, a good business plan, and employees focused on achieving external results.  But in the long run, employees, businesses, and the economy will be much better off with the latter type of competition than the former.

Update: I’m honored to have had this post shortlisted for post of the month over at the fine blog, Only Dead Fish.  Head over there and vote for … the best post.

Notes:

[1] Microsoft’s award-winning CEO Steve Ballmer recently stated:

To succeed, he said, the company will have to find a way to fundamentally change the experience and the economics of search. “You have to redefine the category,” Ballmer said. “We’ve taken some steps in that direction.”

[2] Atlas Institute (2008), Engagement Mapping: A new measurement standard is emerging for advertisers, Thought Paper, p. 2.

[3] Id. pp. 1, 11, 12.

barter's information economics

Corporate barter is a small but apparently thriving activity within the highly developed U.S. market economy.  Among a hundred and thirty-nine Fortune-500 firms that responded substantively to a scholarly survey in 1995, about 25% of the firms stated that they engage in barter transactions.[1]  The National Association of Trade Exchanges (NATE), founded in 1984, provides a high-level institutional organization for barter. Among other activities, it provides an alternative form of money:

NATE members trade through The BANC (Barter Association National Currency), which provides a common and credible barter currency, allowing independent barter exchanges to do business with each other, without the need for back-to-back reciprocal trading.

Another association of barter organizations, the International Reciprocal Trade Association (IRTA), has been holding an annual barter conference since 1979.  In 1988, the IRTA established another barter currency that it calls the Universal Currency.  Commercial exchanges typically charge 8% to 15% of the transaction value.[2]  Thus barter has developed despite considerable direct transactions cost, as well as a much smaller set of possible transactions than those possible for dollars.[3]

A common use of corporate barter in the U.S. is to dispose of assets that have lost much of their book value.  One corporate barter firm explains:

the corporate-barter firm creates value by purchasing the asset at or close to its book value, allowing the company to recoup its investment in that asset. The premium the barter firm pays is generally two to three times its actual, fair-market value.

The company disposing of the asset in turn agrees to buy some good that the barter firm has accumulated.  The counterpart good is usually a low-marginal-cost, perishable good.  Media advertising time is a common counterpart good. Other counterpart goods include hotel stays, event tickets, and travel and transport capacity.  Here’s what a barter firm describes as a good example of corporate barter:

A large brokerage house had a portfolio of margin accounts that were in arrears. We offered to buy the entire portfolio of obligations at book value, but only because we knew the brokerage house was able and willing to purchase sufficient advertising through us. In fact, we collected very few of the accounts in full but did a great job serving the broker’s advertising needs.

The market value of advertising, or other perishable goods, by definition doesn’t depend on to whom it’s sold.  Thus tying the sale of these goods to purchasing devalued assets at full book value doesn’t make straight-forward economic sense.

Another common use of barter is to dispose of excess inventory. The key challenge in disposing of excess inventory is to segment markets so as not to undercut price in the primary market.   One corporate barter firm notes:

A major key to a successful corporate barter transaction is the controlled sale of product. We protect our client’s existing sales distribution channels. We abide strictly by the remarketing and product disposal guidelines.

Barter is not necessary for controlled sale of product.  Barter tends to obscure the cash price of goods traded.  That, along with channel-protection commitments in a barter group and the transactions costs of joining a barter group, might help firms to separate barter transactions from corresponding sets of cash transactions. However, many other possibilities exist for for sellers to segment markets.  Barter seems to be a rather expensive way for sellers to segment markets and price discriminate.

The best explanation for corporate barter seems to me that it gives managers  a tool to diffuse an easy-to-measure loss on an asset across hard-to-monitor expenditures.[4]  Advertising is a common barter counterpart. The value of traditional advertising is quite difficult to measure. Rather than acknowledging in its accounts a loss on a particular asset, managers might trade that asset at its book value for advertising capacity that the corporation would not otherwise buy.  Thus an easy-to-measure loss on an asset is transformed into extra expenditure on difficult-to-value advertising. Note that the counterpart party has no incentive to accept less than full cash compensation for goods that would be bought without the barter deal.  Managers’ desire to transfer lost asset value to expenditure provides a credible reason for the firm to purchase perishable goods that the firm would not otherwise purchase.

Barter’s information economics provide important insights into the real world of advertising expenditure. Interactive digital advertising offers the possibility of much greater accountability in advertising expenditure.  At least in some cases, increased accountability in advertising expenditure may not be in managers’ interests. Well-functioning financial markets, good accounting laws, and dedicated regulators make accountability in advertising expenditure more valuable in practice.

Notes:

[1] See Damitio, James W., Schmidgall, Raymond S., and Kintzele, Philip. “Bartering activities of Fortune 500 companies.”  National Public Accountant, March, 1995, available online at the Free Library.

[2] Commission estimate from Wikepedia entry for barter. The IRTA states that 400,000 IRTA-member companies world-wide, last year used barter “to utilize their Excess Business Capacities and underperforming assets, to earn an estimated $10 Billion dollars in previously lost and wasted revenues.”

[3] Corporate barter was a major element of the badly functioning Russian economy of the 1990s.  Roughly 50% of Russian industrial sales in 1998 were barter transactions.  Explanations for the vast scale of barter include liquidity constraints, implicit government subsidies,  and managerial rent-seeking.  Studies of Russian barter differ about the relative importance of these and other factors in causing barter.  But studies agree that barter indicated significant economic problems in Russia’s transition from a totalitarian planned economy to a decentralized market economy.  See, e.g. Simon Commander, Irina Dolinskaya, and Christian Mumssen, “Determinants of Barter in Russia: An Empirical Analysis,” IMF Working Paper WP/00/155, available online on SSRN.

[4] Unlike virtual currency transactions in virtual worlds, barter transactions are for U.S. tax purposes treated just like normal cash transactions.  Hence, at least in the U.S. and at least for complying corporations, tax incentives do not drive barter.