Most economic forecasting has value mainly in providing accounting consistency in forecasting. For example, if the economy has two sectors of equal size, and one is forecast to grow 2% and the other is forecast to grow 4%, an economist with a good economic model will also forecast that the economy as a whole will grow 3%. Leading weather forecasters aren’t even that good.
Rain was falling at 10am, but no thunderstorms.
Do economist understand the theory of probabilities.
0% probability does not mean it will not happen
Yes. 0% probability means it is certain not to happen. That only issue for dispute is if you claim 0% probability could mean some probability >0% but <0.4%.
certainty and probability do not exist in the same universe