Month: January 2011

comparing total harm from identity theft and interpersonal violence

Survey data, estimates, and reasonable parameters suggest that in the U.S., the total harm from identity theft  is greater than the total harm from interpersonal violence, excluding murder. Among high-income countries, the U.S. has relatively high rates of interpersonal violence. Since identity theft can be perpetrated via global communications networks, rates of identity theft probably vary less across geographic and cultural space than do rates of interpersonal violence. Hence the total harm from identity theft is probably greater than the total harm from interpersonal violence across countries where electronic records and transactions are used at least as frequently as in the U.S.

U.S. survey data indicates that identity theft is more frequent than interpersonal violence and on average causes less harm, but the greater frequency of identity-theft occurrence outweighs the lower harm.  About 5% of persons in the U.S. ages 16 and older experienced one or more incidents of identity theft over a recent two-year period.  The corresponding incidence of interpersonal violence reported in the context of a crime survey is probably roughly 1%. Weighing equally reported effects “significant work-related problems” and “significant relationship problems” indicates that identity theft causes about 5% more of such harm than interpersonal violence. Measuring effects on a scale of reported level of distress and using plausible category weights suggests that identity theft causes in total twice as much distress as interpersonal violence.

Considering relative effects and preventive spending suggests that relatively more public resources should be directed at preventing identity theft. Compared to violent crime prevention, relatively little public resources are spent on preventing identity theft. The marginal effects of both types of spending are not well measured, but a variety of measures to deter identity theft plausibly have relatively high marginal effects.  Just as for identity theft losses compared to fire property losses, the governing economics seems to be driven by perceptions, communications, and institutionalization.

Data: comparison of identity theft and interpersonal violence (Excel version)

ſhifting economics of letters

sorry with long s

The economics of communicative circumstances have shaped the form of letters.  For most of the time since the invention of writing about 5000 years ago, inscriptions primarily concerned authoritative orders, records, and knowledge.  These circumstances imply much more frequent reading of inscriptions than writing them.  Historically important examples of this balance between reading and writing are sacred texts such as the Bible. [1] Consistent with simple communicative economics, the forms chosen for letters are more closely associated with reading efficiency than writing efficiency.

Within a smaller historical scope, the shift in the form of the printed letter s suggests a similar pattern.  Prior to about 1800, a “long s”, which looks like an f without the right part of the cross-bar, was used frequently in addition to the s used nearly exclusively today.  The rules for the use of the long s were quite complicated.  The demise of the long s is associated with the development of new typefaces and their rapid adoption.  At the same time, an important communicative circumstances about 1800 was rapidly growing demand for new books driven by a rage for reading novels. While Benjamin Franklin apparently thought otherwise, not using the long s probably made for easier reading among the growing number of novel readers.  Simplification of a script serves popularization of its use.

Size of the market also seems to correlate temporally with the demise of the long s.  The demise of the long s in Spanish texts (about 1760) was earlier than its demise in French texts (about 1790) and English texts (about 1800).[2]  Including colonial markets, that order of demise is probable the same as the order of the size of the print markets for Spanish, French, and English texts in the late eighteenth century.

Growth of a market and size of a market are somewhat different demand factors.  Growth of the reading population in the late eighteenth century plausibly correlates with less competence/experience in reading among customers actively choosing among books.  Since supply-side scale economies weren’t significant relative to the total market size in late eighteenth-century printing, the significance of total print market size is harder to understand.  Nonetheless, market circumstances, not just particular innovations or conventions, surely have been a major force in the development of letters.

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Read more:

Notes:

[1]  Contemporary text messaging exemplifies a much lower reading/writing ratio.

[2] Scroll down toward the end of Andrew West’s awesome post on the long s to see his charts concerning the relevant trends in the use of the long s.

[3] Whether size of the market or growth of the market is a more propitious circumstance for a new business doesn’t have a general answer.  Entrepreneurs today ponder and debate this sort of issue.

yellow book maintains size, 2010 to 2011

yellow pages print directories

After 33% shrinkage in yellow pages in the yellow book telephone number advertising directory from 2009 to 2010, the 2011 yellow book surprisingly is the same size as the 2010 yellow book. Here are the statistics for 2009-2011 yellow book size comparisons.  The 2011 yellow books showed up at my apartment building entryway on December 20, 2010.

Changes in local advertising media have been quite significant in 2010.  Perhaps the most astonishing development was Groupon’s unprecedented growth.  Groupon is a local special-bargain advertiser and promoter that began operations in November, 2008.  It has subsequently rocketed to a reported revenue of $500 million for 2010.  Groupon turned down a reported $6 billion buyout offer from Google at the start of December, 2010.[*]

Given the changes in the local advertising market, one might have expected print yellow pages to continue to shrink.  Perhaps yellow pages have been deeply discounting advertising rates to retain customers.

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[*] The deal breaker reportedly was regulatory uncertainty associated with anti-trust review.  Groupon reportedly wanted a large breakup fee (perhaps $800 million) if regulators rejected the deal.