big data and controlled experiments

Big data is currently a top geek fashion.  But more data does not directly imply better understanding.  Avinash Kaushik offers great wisdom on the mistakes of data puking.  Collecting data and making tables and diagrams is no substitute for figuring out what to do.

Another top geek fashion is A/B testing.  Kohavi et al. (2012) summarize the pitfalls with a proverb: “the difference between theory and practice is greater in practice than in theory.”  The allure of controlled experiments is that you can directly test outcomes.  In practice you need to address two big problems:

  1. Actually understanding the test.  Kohavi et al. (2012) point to the importance of A/A testing.  If you can’t understand and control the outcomes of A/A testing, don’t waste your time doing A/B testing. A test implicitly encompasses judgments about sample relevance and time-horizon relevance.  A test also necessarily implies some anticipated change in behavior.  Have you considered possibilities for changes in behavior apart from and unrelated to your proposed test change?
  2. Actually identifying a feasible and meaningful outcome measure. Optimizing what is measurable may not increase economic value.  Figuring out the best feasible measure of the economic value relevant to a specific enterprise often isn’t easy.  Kohavi et al. (2012) provide some insightful examples of trade-offs between short-run value and long-run value in the context of testing search advertising.

In short, big data and controlled experiments are tools for thinking, not substitutes for thinking.

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Reference:

Kohavi, Ron, Alex Deng, Brian Frasca, Roger Longbotham, Toby Walker, Ya Xu. 2012.  “Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments: Five Puzzling Outcomes Explained.”  To appear in KDD 2012 Aug 12-16, 2012, Beijing China.

hybrids: a historical-cultural perspective

Recent genetic studies indicate that Homos evolved with at least several Homo subspecies co-existing but subsequently dying out.  About 30,000 years ago, genetically distinct Homo subspecies included Denisovans, Neandertals, and early modern humans (Homo sapiens sapiens).  While these populations are genetically distinct, they interbred and evolved with hybrid genomes.  Modern humans remain genetic hybrids and bear archaic genetic sequences from both Denisovans and Neandertals.

These recent findings from high-tech genetic research would not have surprised readers of Islamic sailors’ tales from a millennium ago.  These tales include many descriptions of human-animal hybrids.  For example, a sea captain noted:

Someone who has been to Zaila and the land of the Ethiopians told me that in the Ethiopian Sea there is a fish just like a human being, in body, hands, and feet.  Fisherman who go afar, unhappy men who spend their lives in unexplored regions, on desert shores, in islands and mountains where they never meet another human being, sometimes find this fish with a human face.  They hold congress with the female.  From them are born beings that look like men, and live in the water and in the atmosphere.  Perhaps these fish with human faces originally derive from a union between a man and some sort of fish, a union that would have produced these creatures like men: after which similar unions would have gone on for centuries.  It is in the same way that men, by coupling with panthers, hyenas and other land animals, have given birth to monkeys, nasnas and other animals that look like man. It is in the same way that the union of pigs and buffalo have produced the elephant, {the union of } dogs and goats the wild boar, and {the union of} the ass and the mare the mule.  If we let ourselves tell all the results of these sorts of union, it would amaze the reader. [1]

A sailor told of what happened when he was left alone while his shipmates went in search of provisions:

a band of moneys came round the ship, and tried to board it.  I chased them away with stones.  A large female succeeded in reaching the ship.  I chased her away, and thought she had gone.  But she deceived me, and climbed up the other side of the ship beside me.  At that time I was about to eat, and I threw her a crust of bread.  She ate it.  In the evening I saw her returning, carrying a bunch of bananas in her mouth.  She called out, and I helped her up.  She put the bananas in front of me, and I ate them.  From then on she did not leave me.  Each day she went and came back, and spent the night on the boat, beside me.  She stirred my desire, and I had congress with her. [2]

The monkey got pregnant. The sailor, ashamed of his action, fled to sea in the ship’s small boat.  When the ship’s crew returned to the ship, they found the female monkey living there, along with child monkeys that had “a human face, a hairless chest and a shorter tail than is common among monkeys.”  The crew recognized that the sailor was the father of the monkey-children.  Some believed the sailor had fled; others believed that the female monkey had killed him.  In any case, the crew “got rid of the monkey and her little ones.”  The sailor, who nearly perished at sea, eventually found his way home and told the story.

Humans in the past imagined themselves in close relation to the natural world of animals.  Hybrids are frequently represented in stories and images across human history and cultures.  Hybrids indicate both recognition of types and admixtures.  Paleoanthropology is pointing to both differentiation and hybridization in human evolution.

centaurs: human-horse hybrids

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Notes:

[1] Trans. Freeman-Grenville (1981) pp. 23-4. The compiler of the tales was Captain Buzurg ibn Shahriyar.  He was from Ramhormuz in Khuzistan and probably sailed from Siraf on the Persian Gulf.  Some of the tales in his book are explicitly dated between 900 and 953 GC.  The surviving copy is dated 1013.

[2] Id. pp. 40-1.

References:

Freeman-Grenville, Greville Stewart Parker, trans. 1981. Buzurg Ibn Šahriyār.  The book of the wonders of India: mainland, sea and islands. London: East-West Publications.

al-Jahiz’s story of Buthaynah, Jamil, and their families

Persons broad-minded enough to comprehend not just the center of the story, but also outer circles, can appreciate the comedy and tragedy of men’s sexual troubles.  Al-Jahiz, a ninth-century Muslim scholar who wrote with literary sophistication on a wide range of scientific and humanistic topics, was such a person.  As would most other learned Muslims of his time, al-Jahiz knew of the late-seventh-century Bedouin love poetry of Jamil ibn Abdallah ibn Mamar al-Udhri (d.701).  He thus knew the story of Jamil’s intense, but unrequited, love for Buthaynah.  Here’s how al-Jahiz told that story in his epistle on singing-girls:

Buthaynah’s brother was vexed in his heart with Jamil because of certain objections to Jamil’s association with her, and because of an idea that the acquaintanceship was not wholly innocent.  He complained of this to her husband, whose alarm was excited by the same thing that had perturbed the brother.  So they laid in wait for Jamil, when he came to visit Buthaynah, with the intention of killing him; but when they had listened to his and her talk, they heard Jamil saying to her by way of testing her:

{Jamil said,} “Would you like to do as men and women do for the quenching of love’s thirst and the extinguishing of passion’s fire?” “No,” said she. “Why?” he asked.  “Because,” she replied, “true love is spoiled when one has sexual intercourse.”  Then Jamil produced a sword which he had hidden under his garment, saying, “Had you granted the favor I asked, I would have plunged this into you.”

When the two others heard this, they were prepared to trust him without surveillance and rely on his chastity; they abandoned their intention of killing him and allowed him freedom to see her and talk to her. [1]

This story has a double frame of testing.  Buthaynah’s brother and husband test Jamil by secretly observing his relationship with Buthaynah.  Within that test, Jamil tests Buthaynah by asking her for sex.  Such self-similar framing is the main organizing structure for the tales of the thousand and one nights (Arabian nights).

Jamil, a classical Arabic love poet, asks for sex as a classical Arabic love poet would.  A modern-day American teenager, in bed with his girlfriend and wanting sex, would text her “dtf?”  A modern-day well-educated American college student would instead hand to his girlfriend across the pillow the university-approved consent form for sexual intercourse.  Jamil, in contrast, says to the woman of his desire: “Would you like to do as men and women do for the quenching of love’s thirst and the extinguishing of passion’s fire?”

Jamil was a Bedouin poet of udhri love — chaste love in which the male lover dies from suffering for love.  That oppressive but socially treasured construction of love typically develops in social circumstances of intense verbal competition.  Ovid in Augustus’ Rome brilliantly ridiculed such love.  In Jahiz’s account of Buthaynah, Jamil, and their families, Buthaynah responds to Jamil’s sex request with a world-saving fiat: “no.” Jamil the poet, at loss for words, can manage to reply only, “Why?”  Buthaynah in turn explains with characteristically feminine reason.  That feminine reason was the ruling reason in Jamil’s udhri love: “true love is spoiled when one has sexual intercourse.”  With more than wisps of ironic poetic imagery, Jamil then whips out a “sword” from under his garment and declares, “I would have plunged this into you.”[2]

Al-Jahiz’s story of Buthaynah, Jamil, and their families isn’t just comedic.  Socio-biological evolution has created within men’s nature intense concern about true paternity knowledge.  At a personal level, that socio-biological evolution manifests in men’s concern for sexual fidelity in a long-term mate.  At a social level, true paternity knowledge doesn’t matter because men’s interests are socially devalued.  At a personal, primal level, most men are highly eager to have sex.  Yet men in truth are more human than a male dog smelling a bitch in heat.  The social construction of men’s self affects their behavior.  Both the social construction of men’s self and the social system regulating men’s paternity interests can kill women and men.

Mary, mother of Jesus, like Buthaynah, beloved of Jamil, modeled virtue in the ancient Islamic world

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Notes:

[1] al-Jahiz, Epistle on Singing-girls, para. 10, trans. Beeston (1980) p. 16.

[2] According to Montgomery (2006) pp. 19, 20, al-Jahiz is a “protean writer of unbounded versatility, astonishing intellectual acumen, and disarming flamboyance”; and al-Jahiz’s epistle on singing girls should be read “as a product of its time, coruscatingly savage in its mordancy, as an intellectually scintillating and rhetorically elusive epistle in which multivalency is combined with polyphony.” That description also fits well Ovid and Ovid’s love elegy.

[image] Apotheosis of the Virgin.  India, Mughal dynasty, ca. 1600.  Arthur M. Sackler Gallery, S1990.57.  On display in Worlds Within Worlds: Imperial Paintings from India and Iran, July 28 – September 16, 2012.

References:

Beeston, Alfred Felix Landon, trans. 1980.  ‘Amr ibn Baḥr al-Gāḥiẓ. The epistle on singing-girls of Jāḥiẓ (Risālat al-qiyān). Warminster: Aris & Phillips.

Montgomery, James E. 2006. “Beeston and the singing-girls”. Proceedings of the Seminar for Arabian Studies. 36: 17-24.

personal services for economically managing communications

Applications for technically managing communications are common.  Email applications typically allow the user to set rules for filtering, routing, and archiving emails.  Telephone companies provide some call management services such as call forwarding and call blocking.  Google Voice offers call routing based on the calling number, the time of day, and your phone numbers or voice mails.  For example, you could set calls from your father to ring on all your phones — your home fixed-line phone, your work phone, and your mobile phone.  You could also set calls from your ex-boyfriend to be always routed to your voicemail.

Personal services for economically managing communications are less developed.  Google Voice doesn’t include call-routing options based on your service prices and your minutes of use.  For example, you can’t switch routing of calls from your mobile phone to your voice mail when you’re close to exceeding your purchased block of minutes. Companies like Truaxis and Validas access customers’ online telephone account information to offer personalized, money-saving recommendations on calling plans and service providers.  But those companies don’t allow customers to set rules for call processing based on the customer’s calling prices and use.

Personal data on communication service prices and service use aren’t readily available for the development of services for economically managing communications.  A challenge for the communications industry is to make such data available through smart disclosure.

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